Decision-Making Models: DECIDE and FORDEC

Decision-making in the cockpit

Decisions in the cockpit are either routine (which altitude? which frequency?) or emergency-driven (engine failure, IMC entry). Structured decision-making models help to think systematically — even under time pressure and stress.

Aeronautical Decision Making (ADM)

ADM is the EASA/FAA term for the systematic approach to pilot decisions. Goals:

• Avoid impulsive errors,
• Consider all relevant factors,
• Complete, documented selection of actions.

ADM building blocks (FAA model):

1. Personal self-assessment (IMSAFE),
2. Recognition of hazardous attitudes,
3. Risk analysis (PAVE — Pilot, Aircraft, Environment, External pressures),
4. Structured decision process (DECIDE / FORDEC),
5. CRM/SRM application (see SRM lesson).

The DECIDE model

DECIDE is a 6-step acronym developed by the FAA for structured decisions in aviation:

D — Detect

"Detect that a change has occurred."

• Which unexpected change has happened? (Weather worse than planned, fuel less than planned, engine anomaly)
• Note the symptoms objectively.

E — Estimate

"Estimate the need to react."

• How serious is the situation?
• How much time do I have?
• What risks are involved?

C — Choose

"Choose a desired outcome."

• What is the goal? (Safe landing, frequency change, diversion)
• Define a concrete, achievable outcome.

I — Identify

"Identify possible actions."

• List options (at least 2–3).
• Evaluate pros and cons of each.

D — Do

"Take the best action."

• Select and execute the best option.
• Clear, decisive, with standard procedures.

E — Evaluate

"Evaluate the outcome."

• Did the action produce the desired result?
• If not: back to D (Detect) — new DECIDE cycle.

Strengths: easy to memorise, fast. Weaknesses: less detailed than FORDEC; can become superficial under pressure.

The FORDEC model

FORDEC was developed by Lufthansa and is widely used in European commercial aviation. It is a more detailed variant of DECIDE.

F — Facts

"What is fact?"

• What has happened (objective facts, not assumptions)?
• What data do I have?
• What immediate consequences are visible?

Example: "The oil pressure gauge reads 25 psi instead of 60 psi. Engine runs normally. Oil temperature normal. We are at FL 50 over wooded terrain."

O — Options

"What options do I have?"

• List all plausible options, including unusual ones.
• At least 2–3 options.

Example:

• Option A: Immediate forced landing in the nearest open field.
• Option B: Continue to nearest aerodrome (15 NM).
• Option C: Return to departure aerodrome (25 NM).

R — Risks/Benefits

"What pros and cons does each option have?"

• Pro/contra per option.

Example for A vs B:

• A: Pro: immediately on the ground. Con: field unchecked, risk of obstacles/injury.
• B: Pro: runway and rescue services. Con: 15 NM with possible engine failure en route.

D — Decision

"Which option do I choose?"

• Make a clear, justified decision.
• Communicate to ATC, co-pilot, pax as appropriate.

Example: "We land at the 15 NM aerodrome; Mayday call to tower."

E — Execute

"Carry out the decision."

• Standard procedure, checklist, clear actions.
• Aviate – Navigate – Communicate.

C — Check

"Is it working?"

• Observe the effect of the decision.
• On new symptoms or change: back to F (Facts) — new FORDEC cycle.

Strengths: very structured, demands explicit option evaluation. Weaknesses: time-consuming — too slow for second-scale emergencies; then use Aviate–Navigate–Communicate and emergency checklists.

Application by time scale

Common decision traps

Continuation bias / plan continuation:

• Pilot sticks to the original plan even when it no longer fits.
• Example: VFR pilot flies into worse weather rather than turning back, because "only 30 NM to home".
• Antidote: conscious check "Am I sticking to the plan for good reasons or out of inertia?"

Confirmation bias:

• Pilot looks only for information confirming the decision.
• Antidote: actively seek counter-arguments.

Sunk-cost fallacy:

• "I've been flying 60 minutes already, I can't turn back now."
• Antidote: past time is lost — only future safety matters.

Pressing:

• "I have to land today, the appointment is tomorrow."
• External pressure leads to risk acceptance.
• Antidote: PAVE — recognise External pressures consciously.